Dec 02

Level 3 Transition Matrices Returned – 2022

We have updated our popular Level 3 Transition Matrices, based on the latest DfE published data from 2022 results. The analysis shows pupil progress from Key Stage 4 prior attainment bands to Level 3 qualification grades. The tool includes A Levels, BTECs, IB and a wide range of other Level 3 academic, technical and vocational qualifications, across all subjects.

Explore the interactive visualisation below. Select a qualification type and subject combination from the drop-downs above the chart and the outcomes for each prior attainment band for that qualification are presented as stacked bar charts. This tool includes all students across England, however we can produce versions specific to your local authority, school or college.

For a local authority or school/college specific version, just get in touch

These can be extremely powerful tools to help school or college leaders identify in which Level 3 qualifications particular groups of pupils are more or less likely to achieve higher grades. It can also be a very useful tool to help students pick which Level 3 qualifications to enter.


A couple of interesting takeaways:

  1. Language A level grades seem less related to prior attainment – for example, 2.2%, 5.8% and 4.4% of students who took French, Spanish or German A level respectively achieved an A* after achieving a grade of 4 to 5 at KS4. This is in comparison to almost no students achieving an A* in Biology, Chemistry or Physics at A level after achieving 4 to 5 at KS4
  2. Prior attainment has a greater impact on outcomes in traditional language A levels compared to non-traditional languages – for example, students from prior attainment bands as low as 2 to 3 achieved an A* in languages such as Arabic and Chinese, whereas the lowest prior attainment band students achieving A*s in French came from was in 4 to 5 KS4 attainment band
  3. Prior attainment seems to have a greater impact on students sitting STEM courses in their BTEC Level 3 National Certificate compared to non-STEM subjects – for example, the prior attainment band which saw the highest percentage of pupils achieving a D* in Applied Sciences was 8 to 9 compared to Travel and Tourism where the highest percentage of pupils achieving a D* came from the 2 to 3 prior attainment band.

About The Author

Joe joined Mime in 2019 from the British Medical Association where he led on their analysis of NHS pressures data. Previously he worked at the Wellcome Trust, in their Education team working to improve science education. He studied Economics at Cambridge and has a masters in Public Policy. Volunteering as a tutor for two London-based education charities sparked his passion for using data to improve education outcomes.