Building robust and useful EHCP cohort projection models

Over recent years we’ve been working closely with Wandsworth Borough Council to produce SEND forecasts to help the council with high needs place planning. In particular, Wandsworth wanted to more proactively plan increasing capacity for SEND places to become less reliant on commissioning expensive independent placements. The result of this collaborative work was our SEND Projection Model which is now being adopted by other local authorities.

In Wandsworth the model has allowed them to identify upcoming demand for more specialist ASD places in both primary and secondary, and SEMH places in secondary in particular – and therefore invest in new capacity well ahead of time. In this blog, we hear from people in Wandsworth about how this modelling has made a real difference on the ground, and we outline some key takeaways from this work.

This video shows how the model has been used in Wandsworth, benefitting the council as well as the local community around Granard Primary school, the site of a new ASD base

With the statutory requirement for specialist place forecasts to be included in local authority SCAP returns, the DfE are keen to learn about good practice in place planning – and they praised the forecasting approach that Wandsworth adopted as the “best they had seen”! With that in mind, we thought we would share some of our key learnings from this forecasting work.

5 key considerations for modelling future SEND and EHCP cohorts

1. It is important to understand the implications of population projections – The Wandsworth Mime  Projection Model builds in the impact of changing birth rates and population movement in and out of the local authority. The model also separates out the specific impact of these population changes so users can understand the scale of that, compared with other factors. For example, in many cases we found that, while there was a falling school age population, the rising demand for EHCPs outweighed any impact this has on the number of young people with EHCPs
2. Modelling tools must allow for changes in policy and practice – While our baseline models are always built on the assumption the request, assessment and provision practices remain similar to current and historic practices, decision makers need the ability to see the implications of changes. For example users can model the implication for the future EHCP cohort size of implementing an intervention (such as improved SEN Support) aimed at reducing requests for EHCPs by 10%
3. Increased focus on early identification means separating out EHCPs issued to early years pupils is key – As more local authorities implement early identification strategies, assessment practices for early years pupils will look increasingly different to their older peers. Therefore, the Wandsworth Mime model allows users to set a much higher rate of EHCP requests among reception age pupils than for older pupils
4. Provision demand projections must account for changing local specialist provision – We know from work with many local authorities, that local provision availability can often drive demand for certain types of provision. Therefore, when using these projections, it is important to consider what upcoming changes in local provision are planned, and how any new places will be filled with pupils with different needs
5. Linking projections to finance data can be powerful – The 15 year horizon that the Wandsworth Mime model provides allows decision makers to see just how much their overall cohort size is likely to change if nothing is done differently. Linking these numbers to placement funding data therefore allows for powerful findings about expected future spends and supports better planning

Our plans for 2024 and beyond

We are continuing to develop our projections algorithm and modelling tool alongside Wandsworth Borough Council and other users. This includes improving how the tool can be used for specific provision planning, as well as supporting new SCAP and other DfE requirements. We are always looking for more local authorities to use and feedback on the tool so please do get in touch if you are interested!

Get in touch if you would like to hear more!